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Today i’m going to share my thoughts on why you can forget (or not start to learn about) the Diffusion of Innovation Theory/Model, popularised by Rodger’s in the 1960’s and referred-to within an inch of its life, by know-it-all marketing executives from the 1980’s to this very day.

In a nutshell, the Diffusion of Innovation model says that over a products life-cycle, five general types of consumers purchase it. Innovators, Early Adopters, Early Majority, Late Majority and Laggards...
I’ve always thought the term laggard was a bit harsh. Couldn’t they be called”Fairly-Cautious-Wait-For-The-Bugs-To-Be-Sorted-Out-And-Wait-For-It-To-Go-On-Sale-At-Argos” people?

Laggards have been the bastards of the Diffusion model since day one. Marketers have always seen them as the rear-end of a dying animal. Not worth promoting to, as traditionally, they had less disposable income than the others.
It would seem though, that the late adopters and laggards of yesterday are the leapfroggers of today.

Leapfroggers – Not that arcade game from the 1980’s...

So what actually defines a leapfrogger?

These are folks that pop up on every second or third rotation of a product’s lifecycle.
People like my mum. She had an early 90’s walkman to jog with for about 10 years. Although technology had moved onto Discmans and become relatively inexpensive, she found it impractical to move all of her music from cassette to CD, and didn’t like the idea of running with something that seemed more fragile.

The time did come when the old walkman had pretty much died. I suggested using some duct tape, as that seems to fix anything, but she decided it was time to upgrade.
Instead of being a laggard in the portable CD player category, she became an early-adopter in the MP3 category.

My mother isn’t the exception to the rule either. I know alot of people that kept hold of outdated mobile phones. You remember those phones that could only make calls and send texts? The most common reasoning was they couldn’t see the value in upgrading when the technology would soon be outdated. Most of those people now have an iphone, and some have Blackberries.

I think the same may be true with the ipad. I have a trusty netbook that I purchased for a small amount a few years ago. It is a little larger than a5 size, and about the width of two iphones. It runs XP, and enables me to do small amounts of graphic design and web development when i’m out of the country. I also have an iphone, but do I have space in my life for an ipad?

The answer is not right now.... But maybe in a year or two (in time for the Ipad 5GS I guess). It’s not that I don’t think the ipad a great product, it’s just that I don’t see the value in getting the newest and shiniest until I really need it.
I dare say that those of you with plain old iphone 3Gs won’t upgrade to the 3GS  now. It’ll be starigth to the internal aerial fun of the 4G.

But Why?

Technology moves faster nowadays... products typically take a third of the time to develop than they did 15 years ago. It’s just not cost-effective or time-efficient to keep upgrading to new and selling the old.

OK, so what now?

Rodgers Diffusion of Innovation Theory and Model is not dead, it just needs another layer. We as marketers and you folks as brand owners, need to recognise that there is a relatively ignored group out there that are as worthy of your attention, as you are of their money....